Real Estate News

2009 resale housing market ends on a high note
Existing home sales activity reached the highest level ever for the month of December, according to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association. Strong demand in the second half of 2009, especially in the fourth quarter, pushed annual sales above 2008 levels.

Residential sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) of Canadian real estate boards numbered 27,744 units in December 2009. This stands 72 per cent above activity in December 2008, when activity dropped to the lowest level in a decade. New records for the month of December were reported in Ontario, Quebec, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland & Labrador.

Seasonally adjusted national home sales totalled 46,805 units in December, capping the strongest fourth quarter period ever. A total of 137,957 homes traded hands on a seasonally adjusted basis in the fourth quarter of 2009. This is up 2.6 per cent from the previous record set in the first quarter of 2007. New quarterly records were set in British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec.

National sales activity began 2009 on a weak footing. Despite year-over-year increases in the second and third quarters of the year, year-to-date activity was still trailing 2008 levels at the end of September 2009. A 59 per cent year-over-year gain in the fourth quarter of 2009 pushed sales activity above annual levels for 2008.

"Sales activity in 2009 came in like a lamb and went out like a lion," said CREA President Dale Ripplinger. "The continuation of unusually low interest rates may keep national sales activity near current levels over the coming months, as will a blip in housing demand in Ontario and British Columbia from homebuyers motivated to beat the introduction of the HST."

Annual activity in 2009 was down 10.7 per cent from the peak reached in 2007. A total of 465,251 homes traded hands through the MLS® systems of real estate boards in Canada in 2009. This is up 7.7 per cent from 2008 levels, and represents the fourth highest level on record for annual activity.

The national residential average price was $337,410 in December, up 19 per cent year-over-year. On an annual basis, average price climbed five per cent to a record $320,333. Average prices set new annual records in a majority of local markets in 2009, and in every province except Alberta.

The large year-over-year increase in the national average price in December reflects the high degree to which it was skewed downward in late 2008 by unusually low activity in Canada's priciest markets. The national average price was also skewed upward by rebounding activity in the spring and summer months of 2009. The national average price rose to unprecedented heights at that time, despite records having been set in only a small number of local markets.

2009 resale housing market ends on a high note The contribution of activity by higher priced markets toward the national average price has recently returned to more typical levels. Record level average prices in most regions are now driving the national average price to new heights.

The price trend is similar but less dramatic for the national weighted average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. It climbed 3.6 per cent in 2009.

The residential average price in Canada's major markets was up 5.5 per cent year-over-year to $348,840 in 2009. As with the national counterpart, the price trend is similar but less dramatic for the major market weighted average price, which rose 2.3 per cent from 2008 levels.

Strong demand and headline average price gains are drawing more sellers to the market. New listings coming onto Boards' MLS® Systems across Canada rose to the highest level on record for the month of December, with a total of 33,090 residential properties coming on stream. This is up 4.8 per cent from December 2008, the first year-over-year gain in a year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, new listings rose by 4.7 per cent in December 2009 compared to the previous month.

The recent rising trend in new listings has not yet offset the steep decline in the number of new listings during the first half of 2009. As a result, new listings in 2009 were down 12.6 per cent from the annual peak in 2008.

Despite the recent rise in new listings, strong demand for resale housing continues to draw down inventories. There were 154,264 homes listed for sale on Boards' MLS® Systems in Canada at the end of December 2009, a decline of 22 per cent from levels reported one year ago.

Nationally, there were 4.1 months of inventory in December 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis. This is the lowest level in more than two years.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of months of inventory in December 2009 stood at 5.6 months, the lowest December figure since 2005, and well below the same month in 2008 (12.3 months). Although up slightly from November (five months), an increase is normal at this time of year since demand normally eases relative to supply over autumn and winter months. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

"CREA's latest statistics will no doubt spark further bubble talk amongst the usual suspects," said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. "Cooler heads recognize that many of the recent gains reflect temporary factors that could fade by summer."

"The extraordinary decline in activity one year ago and subsequent rebound, particularly for higher-priced real estate, is stretching current year-over-year comparisons," he said. "By the second half of 2010, price gains are likely to shrink significantly, since a year will have elapsed since the decline and rebound." Klump added that, "Further expected increases in supply will also take some steam out of the market. A more balanced market will result in smaller price increases in the second half of the year, but a massive decline in demand similar to what we saw in late 2008 and early 2009 seems as unlikely as a massive spike in supply."(CREA 1/15/2010)

Existing home sales activity remains strong in November
According to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association, existing home sales activity remained upbeat in November 2009. The current strength of housing demand stands in sharp contrast to weak activity recorded one year ago.

A total of 36,383 residential properties traded hands via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) of Canadian real estate boards in November 2009. Up 73 per cent from year-ago levels, activity was down just four tenths of a per cent from the highest level of activity for the month posted in November 2007. Home sales set new records for the month of November in Ontario and Quebec.

"National home sales activity last month shows how strongly the housing market has rebounded since the beginning of the year,' said CREA President Dale Ripplinger. "As we predicted last April, the rebound in resale housing activity led the overall Canadian economy out of recession."

The unprecedented year-over-year gain in activity underscores the extent to which demand has recovered from one year ago, when news of the global financial crisis hammered consumer confidence. Year-over-year gains were biggest in British Columbia (165 per cent) and Ontario (77 per cent).

Since the beginning of 2009, some 437,507 homes have been sold through Canadian MLS® systems. This is up five per cent from activity in the first 11 months of 2008, but below levels for the period in each of the previous three years.

The national residential average price was $337,231 in November, a gain of 19 per cent compared to one year ago. For the year-to-date, the average price is up 4.4 per cent compared to the same period last year. The yearover- year increase in November continues to reflect the high degree to which the average was skewed downward last year by plummeting activity in Canada's priciest markets, and then upward by rebounding activity. Average price in November edged back from the peak reached in October.

The price trend is similar but less dramatic for the national MLS® weighted average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. The weighted average price climbed 13 per cent on a year-over-year basis in November. This is a smaller increase compared to the year-over-year gain of 14 per cent recorded the previous month.

The residential average price in Canada's major markets was up 20 per cent year-over-year to $368,665. As with the national counterpart, the price trend is similar but less dramatic for the major market weighted average price which rose 11 per cent from last November.

The return of strong demand and headline average price gains is beginning to draw more sellers back to the market. Seasonally adjusted new listings coming onto Boards' MLS® Systems across Canada rose five per cent on a month-over-month basis in November to 69,110 units. This is the biggest monthly increase since January 2008. Despite the uptick in new listings, the sharp rise in resale housing demand continues to draw down inventories. There were 183,710 homes listed for sale on Boards' MLS® Systems in Canada at the end of November 2009. This is down 23 per cent from levels reported one year ago, and the seventh month in a row in which inventories have declined from year-ago levels.

Nationally, there were four months of inventory in November 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis, the lowest level in more than two years. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of months of inventory in November 2009 stood at five months, up slightly from the previous month (4.6 months). An increase is normal at this time of year, since demand tends to ease relative to supply over autumn and winter months. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

"The latest batch of seasonally adjusted statistics may reflect distortions in the seasonal adjustment procedure due to an extraordinarily weak housing market one year ago," said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. "Deteriorating housing affordability will reign in sales activity as the overall economy further improves and the pool of buyers who qualify for financing shrinks."

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national MLS® sales information of Boards' MLS® Systems from the previous month. The Canadian Real Estate Association has previously released these separately.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighborhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada's largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 96,000 real estate Brokers/agents and salespeople working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.

Registrants in any province who become members of organized real estate have an obligation to act in accordance with the REALTOR® Code. This Code outlines the accepted standard of conduct for all real estate practitioners who are members of a real estate Board or a Provincial Association.

CREA owns the MLS® and REALTOR® trademarks, which signify a high standard of service and identify members of CREA. (CREA 12/15/2009)

October a record breaking month for MLS® resale housing market

According to The Canadian Real Estate Association, sales activity reached the highest level ever for the month of October.

Residential sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) of Canadian real estate boards numbered 42,288 units. This is up 41.5 per cent compared to October 2008, when news of the global financial crisis hammered consumer confidence. New records for the month were reported in about one-fifth of local markets, including Toronto, Montreal, and Ottawa.

Seasonally adjusted national MLS® home sales totalled 45,818 units in October 2009. This is two per cent higher than the previous record set in May 2007, and 74 per cent above the recent low in January, when activity fell to the lowest level in a decade. New monthly records for activity were set in British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec, which reflect record level activity in Greater Vancouver, Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal and Quebec City.

Since the beginning of 2009, some 401,124 homes have traded hands via the MLS® System. This is 1.6 per cent above the same period last year, but below levels for this period in each of the previous three years.

"Low interest rates and upbeat consumer confidence continue to release the pent-up demand that built late last year and earlier this year," said CREA President Dale Ripplinger. "The release of that pent-up demand has boosted national sales activity to new heights and is drawing down inventories."

The national MLS® residential average price also reached new heights in October 2009. At $341,079, the average sale price was up 20.7 per cent from the same month last year. The increase reflects the high degree to which the national average price was skewed downward last year by a significant decline in activity in Canada's priciest markets, and then upward by the rebound in activity.

The price trend is similar but less dramatic for the national MLS® weighted average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. It set a record in October, rising 14 per cent on a year-over-year basis.

October also saw the MLS® residential average price in Canada’s major markets improve. At $373,095, the average sale price was up 22.1 per cent from the same month last year. As with the national counterpart, the price trend is similar but less dramatic for the major market MLS® weighted average price which rose in October 12 per cent on a year-over-year basis.

Seasonally adjusted new listings coming onto the MLS® Systems of real estate boards across Canada inched up on a month-over-month basis in October to 65,148 units. New listings peaked in May 2008 and declined sharply until March 2009. Since April 2009, new listings have held to within a range of 66,500 units, plus or minus 1800 units.

The sharp rise in resale housing demand has increasingly shrunk inventories. There were 194,994 homes listed for sale on the MLS® Systems of real estate boards in Canada at the end of October 2009. This is 20.8 per cent below the peak reached one year ago, and the sixth month in a row in which inventories are down from year-ago levels.

Nationally, there were 4.1 months of inventory in October 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis, the lowest level in more than two years. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of months of inventory in October 2009 stood at 4.6 months, which is down slightly from the previous month (4.9 months), and among the lowest of levels this year. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

"New listings are still expected to rise in the coming months in response to headline average price increases," said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. "New supply dropped dramatically in December last year and earlier this year in response to a difficult pricing environment. Sellers who moved to the sidelines should be drawn back to the market as prices rise further over the rest of the year and in early 2010." (CREA 11/16/2009)