Real Estate News

October a record breaking month for MLS® resale housing market

According to The Canadian Real Estate Association, sales activity reached the highest level ever for the month of October.

Residential sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) of Canadian real estate boards numbered 42,288 units. This is up 41.5 per cent compared to October 2008, when news of the global financial crisis hammered consumer confidence. New records for the month were reported in about one-fifth of local markets, including Toronto, Montreal, and Ottawa.

Seasonally adjusted national MLS® home sales totalled 45,818 units in October 2009. This is two per cent higher than the previous record set in May 2007, and 74 per cent above the recent low in January, when activity fell to the lowest level in a decade. New monthly records for activity were set in British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec, which reflect record level activity in Greater Vancouver, Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal and Quebec City.

Since the beginning of 2009, some 401,124 homes have traded hands via the MLS® System. This is 1.6 per cent above the same period last year, but below levels for this period in each of the previous three years.

"Low interest rates and upbeat consumer confidence continue to release the pent-up demand that built late last year and earlier this year," said CREA President Dale Ripplinger. "The release of that pent-up demand has boosted national sales activity to new heights and is drawing down inventories."

The national MLS® residential average price also reached new heights in October 2009. At $341,079, the average sale price was up 20.7 per cent from the same month last year. The increase reflects the high degree to which the national average price was skewed downward last year by a significant decline in activity in Canada's priciest markets, and then upward by the rebound in activity.

The price trend is similar but less dramatic for the national MLS® weighted average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. It set a record in October, rising 14 per cent on a year-over-year basis.

October also saw the MLS® residential average price in Canada’s major markets improve. At $373,095, the average sale price was up 22.1 per cent from the same month last year. As with the national counterpart, the price trend is similar but less dramatic for the major market MLS® weighted average price which rose in October 12 per cent on a year-over-year basis.

Seasonally adjusted new listings coming onto the MLS® Systems of real estate boards across Canada inched up on a month-over-month basis in October to 65,148 units. New listings peaked in May 2008 and declined sharply until March 2009. Since April 2009, new listings have held to within a range of 66,500 units, plus or minus 1800 units.

The sharp rise in resale housing demand has increasingly shrunk inventories. There were 194,994 homes listed for sale on the MLS® Systems of real estate boards in Canada at the end of October 2009. This is 20.8 per cent below the peak reached one year ago, and the sixth month in a row in which inventories are down from year-ago levels.

Nationally, there were 4.1 months of inventory in October 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis, the lowest level in more than two years. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of months of inventory in October 2009 stood at 4.6 months, which is down slightly from the previous month (4.9 months), and among the lowest of levels this year. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

"New listings are still expected to rise in the coming months in response to headline average price increases," said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. "New supply dropped dramatically in December last year and earlier this year in response to a difficult pricing environment. Sellers who moved to the sidelines should be drawn back to the market as prices rise further over the rest of the year and in early 2010." (CREA 11/16/2009)

National resale housing activity climbed to the highest level of any third quarter on record.
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) home sales via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate boards totalled 135,182 units in the third quarter of 2009, according to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). This is the highest level of activity on record for the period from July to September. The number of transactions was up 18 per cent from the third quarter of last year, representing the biggest year-over-year increase since early 2002.

Seasonally adjusted national MLS® home sales numbered 127,941 units in the third quarter, up 12 per cent from the previous quarter. Building on two previous quarterly increases, seasonally adjusted MLS® home sales activity now stands 48 per cent above the low reached in the fourth quarter last year.

"Momentum for sales activity remained strong throughout the third quarter," said CREA President Dale Ripplinger. "Low interest rates, rebounding consumer confidence and an improving overall sense of economic security continue to draw homebuyers to the housing market."

Seasonally adjusted sales activity in the third quarter was up from the previous quarter in over 80 per cent of local markets. Quarterly activity increases in Vancouver (34 per cent), Toronto (11 per cent), and Calgary (19 per cent) contributed most to the national increase in activity.

Some 42,958 homes traded hands via the MLS® Systems of real estate boards in Canada in September 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis. This represents an increase of 1.5 per cent from August, and lifts seasonally adjusted activity 63 per cent above the low in January.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) MLS® home sales activity remained strong throughout the quarter. Resale activity in September 2009 posted the fourth consecutive increase from year-ago levels, all of which exceeded 15 per cent. Sales numbered 42,497 in September, up 17 per cent year-over-year and a new record for the month. Year-over-year activity increases in Toronto (28 per cent) and Vancouver (124 per cent) were the driving force behind the increase in actual (not seasonally adjusted) national sales activity in September.

Climbing to $327,736, the national MLS® residential average price rose 11 per cent from the same quarter last year. The national average price continues to be skewed upward by a sustained increase in sales activity, including a sharp rebound in activity at the higher end of the price spectrum, in some of Canada’s priciest markets.

The national MLS® residential average price surpassed all previous monthly levels in September 2009, rising 13.6 per cent year-over-year to $331,602. July and August also posted new average price records for their respective months. A number of provinces set new average price records for the month of September, and Ontario posted the highest average price on record.

The price trend is similar but less dramatic for the weighted national MLS® average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. The weighted national MLS® average sale price was up 9.3 per cent year-over-year in September 2009.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the supply of homes coming onto the MLS® market edged up in the third quarter after four consecutive quarterly declines. Seasonally adjusted MLS® residential new listings were up one per cent from the previous quarter to 199,824 units. The increase reflects a quarterly rise in the number of new listings in British Columbia and Ontario, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland & Labrador. New listings remained stable or continued to retreat in other provinces.

While the small rise in seasonally adjusted new listings suggests that the number of homes coming onto the market may soon begin to edge higher, the number of new listings remains well down from year-ago levels. Barring a sudden unforeseen spike in levels, new listings are likely to remain down from year-ago levels for some time.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) new listings were down 12.5 per cent compared to the third quarter of 2008 after posting year-over-year decreases in each of the previous quarters. Newfoundland & Labrador is the only province in which new listings were up from year-ago levels.

An increase in sales activity and fewer new listings are drawing down inventories compared to year-ago levels. There were 208,215 homes listed for sale on the MLS® Systems of real estate boards in Canada at the end of September 2009, down 16 per cent from a year earlier. This is the fifth consecutive year-over-year decline in active listings, and the largest decline in more than six years.

Nationally, the number of months of inventory was 4.9 months in September 2009. This is down slightly compared to August, and remains well down from the recessionary peak of 12.8 months in January 2009. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

The seasonally adjusted residential dollar volume for MLS® home sales increased 20 per cent on a quarter-overquarter basis to $42.1 billion in the third quarter of 2009, the highest level on record. New provincial records were also set in British Columbia and Ontario, which propelled the national figure to a new high.

"Monthly sales activity remained on a strong upward trajectory throughout the third quarter in British Columbia, while showing signs that it may be topping out in other provinces," said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. "On balance, this suggests that sales activity may be starting to plateau after having climbed rapidly earlier this year."

"Headline average price increases over the rest of the year are expected to prompt sellers to return to the market after having retreated to the sidelines late last year and earlier this year," he added. "An increase in new listings will help keep a lid on price increases. Price increases over the rest of 2009 and early next year are likely to reflect declining average prices late last year and earlier this year." (CREA 010/15/2009)

MLS® home sales remain strong in August

National resale housing market sales activity remained up from year-ago levels in August 2009 for the third consecutive month, posting the largest year-over-year gain in more than two years.

According to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), a total of 42,483 homes traded hands via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate Boards in August 2009. This represents an increase of 18.5 per cent from the same month last year, and the third consecutive year-over-year gain of more than 15 per cent. Sales were 6.6 per cent below the record for the month of August set in 2007.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, national MLS® home sales held steady. At 42,426 units, seasonally adjusted activity came to within six-tenths of one per cent of levels in the previous month. Seasonally adjusted activity in Alberta and Quebec declined, offsetting activity gains in British Columbia. Seasonally adjusted activity still remains 60.8 per cent above the decade-low in January.

"National sales activity in the third quarter is on track for a significant increase compared to the second quarter," said CREA President Dale Ripplinger. "Low interest rates and affordability continue to attract homebuyers to the housing market. Consumer confidence continues to rise, which bodes well for activity in the coming months."

Resale activity in August 2009 was up from year-ago levels in about approximately three-quarters of all local markets. Year-over-year gains in Vancouver (117 per cent), Toronto (27 per cent), Calgary (17 per cent) and Montreal (nine per cent) contributed most to the national increase in activity. Aggregate MLS® home sales activity for 25 major markets posted the third consecutive increase from year-ago levels of more than 20 per cent in August.

Demand continues to improve in Canada's more expensive housing markets, drawing the national average price upward. The national MLS® residential average price rose 11.3 per cent from year-ago levels to $324,779. This is the highest national average price for the month of August.

The MLS® residential average price for the month of August set records in every province except Alberta. A sustained increase in sales activity, including a rebound in activity at the higher end of the price spectrum in some of Canada's priciest markets, is skewing the national average price upward.

This price trend is similar but more muted for the weighted national MLS® average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. The weighted national MLS® average sale price in August 2009 was up 7.1 per cent year-over-year, but down eight-tenths of a per cent from the previous month.

The weighted average price increase for an aggregate of 25 major markets reveals a similarly muted trend compared to its unweighted counterpart. The major market weighted average price rose 5.3 per cent year-over-year in August 2009, compared to an increase of 11.8 per cent for the unweighted major market average price. The major market weighted average price compensates for changes in sales activity in major markets by taking into account the proportion of privately owned housing stock in each market in relation to the major market aggregate.

The number of new listings coming onto the MLS® market posted the eighth consecutive decline from year-ago levels. New residential listings were down 8.9 per cent year-over-year to 64,167 units, the lowest level for the month of August in five years.

Improved demand is combining with fewer new listings to draw down inventories on the housing market. There were 212,227 homes listed for sale on the MLS® Systems of real estate Boards in Canada at the end of August 2009, down 13.3 per cent from a year earlier. This is the fourth consecutive year-over-year decline in active listings.

Nationally, the number of months of inventory was up slightly to five months in August from 4.4 months in July, but still well below the recessionary peak of 12.8 months in January 2009. The number of months of inventory edged up in most major markets in August. The number of months of inventory is equal to the supply of active listings at the end of the month divided by the number of sales that month. It represents the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

The seasonally adjusted dollar volume of all residential MLS® sales set a new record in August 2009, rising 1.5 per cent from the previous month to $14 billion. British Columbia contributed most to the increase, having posted the highest seasonally adjusted dollar volume on record for the province.

"The balance of sentiment making big-ticket purchases pushed into positive territory in August for the first time since early last year," said Chief Economist Gregory Klump. "Recent cuts to mortgage interest rates will no doubt provide further support for this indicator, which is an important factor underlying the housing market."

"Activity may be leveling out as we indicated in last month's revised resale housing market forecast. Average prices dropped sharply over the second half of 2008 and have rebounded since then, so comparisons against year-ago levels are likely to show continued improvement over the rest of 2009."(CREA 09/15/2009)